Predicting the impact of climate change in the oceans: Surprises

A warm and happy 2012 fellow bloggers! As we proceed to the closure of this blog, attention will now turn to predicting future impacts of climate change in the oceans. After reviewing paleoclimatological evidence for past changes in ocean circulation, it is useful to set out the context to which the latter end of this blog is concerned. From a paleoclimatological perspective, it is useful to appreciate that we are in a geologically unique epoch; owing to a significant rise in greenhouse gas emissions. Crutzen (2000) coined the term ‘Anthropocene’ to describe this phenomena.  Air temperatures on Earth are projected to rise between 1.1- 6.4°C for the 21st century (Tyrell, 2011). As stated earlier in the blog; even if we achieve climate stabilization, we are committed to approximately 0.5 °C due to the thermal inertia of the oceans.   

Reviewing past changes in ocean circulation, have revealed the potential of non-linear responses of the oceans in response to climate change. To add to this complexity, we shall now consider the impact of anthropogenic climate change on changes in ocean circulation.

Predicting the impact of anthropogenic climate change on ocean circulation thus, will involve the study of what I consider key “surprises” in the climate system. These are defined as the following; the collapse of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice sheets and the impact of emission scenarios on the thermohaline circulation. These will form the basis for the concluding thoughts to this blog.